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NBA games

Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks

ATL HawksRested
70%
MIL BucksRested
30%

Hawks win 7,013 of 10,000 sims. Market: –.

Spread
ATL −7.8mkt –
MIL covers
–
Total
232.2mkt –
Over
–
Median score
120–112

Prices

Price to buy, cents
Sims price, sportsbook and Kalshi for each team to win
ContractSimsBookKalshi
Hawks win70¢–75¢
Bucks win30¢–27¢

How the 10,000 games ended

20%20+11%15–1914%10–1414%5–910%1–411%1–48%5–95%10–143%15–192%20+
← ATL wins byMIL wins by →

Who plays, and how much

Projected minutes and stats, before the starting lineups are out

Hawks

Atlanta Hawks: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Jalen Johnson3419.09.86.5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker3122.23.02.4
Dyson Daniels3110.27.55.9
Onyeka Okongwu3013.07.62.4
Aaron Wiggins2613.83.52.6
CJ McCollum2514.02.93.9
Luguentz Dort259.03.11.6
Jock Landale145.73.61.7
Kingston FlemingsDay-To-Day145.21.62.7
Zuby Ejiofor83.62.21.0
RayJ Dennis20.60.30.3

Out: Keshon Gilbert, Mouhamed Gueye, Asa Newell, Henri Veesaar

Bucks

Milwaukee Bucks: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Tyler Herro3119.84.75.1
Jaime Jaquez Jr.2816.84.93.3
Myles Turner278.25.82.4
Kyle Kuzma2710.75.23.1
Cormac Ryan2514.32.51.7
Brayden Burries2310.45.62.3
Ryan Rollins2311.94.14.0
Kel'el Ware188.76.20.9
AJ Green177.81.81.2
Kam Jones174.41.74.2
Nate Ament62.30.80.2

Each player has a rating (points per 48 minutes his teams gained or lost with him on the floor, anchored to his box-score production) and projected minutes from his recent games. Players listed out on the injury report are removed and their minutes go to teammates; day-to-day players keep part of theirs. Home court and the second night of a back-to-back are counted. Then the game is played 10,000 times.