ClosingLine
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NBA games

Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings

OKC ThunderRested
79%
SAC KingsRested
21%

Thunder win 7,871 of 10,000 sims. Market: –.

Spread
OKC −11.4mkt –
SAC covers
–
Total
224.5mkt –
Over
–
Median score
118–106

Prices

Price to buy, cents
Sims price, sportsbook and Kalshi for each team to win
ContractSimsBookKalshi
Thunder win79¢–85¢
Kings win21¢–16¢

How the 10,000 games ended

29%20+13%15–1914%10–1414%5–99%1–49%1–46%5–93%10–142%15–191%20+
← OKC wins bySAC wins by →

Who plays, and how much

Projected minutes and stats, before the starting lineups are out

Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander3328.83.95.5
Jared McCain2713.23.52.0
Isaiah Hartenstein268.510.33.6
Aday Mara239.16.71.5
Kenrich Williams217.64.31.6
Bennett Stirtz208.61.31.3
Alex Caruso207.04.22.6
Ajay MitchellDay-To-Day1710.32.12.2
Nikola Topic165.21.94.4
Micah Peavy163.82.30.7
Josh Dix111.70.80.2
Nique Clifford93.71.31.1

Out: Chet Holmgren, Thomas Sorber, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams

Kings

Sacramento Kings: projected minutes, points, rebounds and assists
PlayerMinPtsRebAst
Darius Acuff Jr.3927.64.07.7
Domantas Sabonis3516.213.86.2
De'Andre Hunter3415.24.31.3
Zach LaVine3423.13.62.6
Emanuel Sharp194.91.50.7
Malik Monk168.61.23.2
Leaky Black153.52.61.0
Mason Plumlee91.53.01.2
Daeqwon Plowden82.90.80.5
Jonathan Mogbo71.61.50.7
Dylan Cardwell61.72.20.5
Keegan Murray62.50.80.3

Out: Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud, Ben Simmons

Each player has a rating (points per 48 minutes his teams gained or lost with him on the floor, anchored to his box-score production) and projected minutes from his recent games. Players listed out on the injury report are removed and their minutes go to teammates; day-to-day players keep part of theirs. Home court and the second night of a back-to-back are counted. Then the game is played 10,000 times.