NBA games
How accurate is it? (NBA)
Last season replayed game by game with only what was known before tip-off (ratings from earlier games, minutes from recent games, the injury report), then this season as published. The benchmark is the betting market, and on percentages it was sharper.
2025–26, replayed
Picked the winner70%Betting favorite: 69% · 974 games with a line
Misses the final margin by11.3 ptsBetting line: 11.1 pts
Log loss (lower is better)0.585Betting market: 0.571
2026–27 season, live
174 games graded so far. Winners: sims 118, betting favorite 128 of 173. Closer to the final margin: sims 69, market 103.
| Game | Final | Winner: sims · mkt | Line: sims · mkt | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · CHA at PHX | 96–101 | ✓ · ✓ | PHX −11.8 · PHX −6.5 | Market |
| · DAL at MIN | 94–133 | ✓ · ✓ | MIN −8.7 · MIN −5.5 | Sims |
| · DET at WSH | 144–140 | ✓ · ✓ | DET −12.3 · DET −10.5 | Market |
| · TOR at PHI | 112–123 | ✓ · ✓ | PHI −2.9 · PHI −8.5 | Market |
| · OKC at POR | 108–118 | ✓ · ✓ | POR −6.2 · POR −2.5 | Sims |
| · GS at HOU | 108–115 | ✓ · ✓ | HOU −2.9 · HOU −6.5 | Market |
| · ORL at UTAH | 123–108 | ✓ · ✓ | ORL −3.1 · ORL −4.5 | Market |
| · BKN at NO | 145–111 | ✗ · ✗ | NO −5.8 · NO −2.5 | Market |
| · LAL at MIL | 123–112 | ✓ · ✓ | LAL −14.6 · LAL −14.5 | Market |
| · DEN at MEM | 123–118 | ✓ · ✓ | DEN −1.3 · DEN −3.5 | Market |
| · SA at CHI | 124–119 | ✓ · ✓ | SA −21.4 · SA −15.5 | Market |
| · BOS at TOR | 98–93 | ✓ · ✓ | BOS −1.9 · BOS −5.5 | Market |
| · CLE at NY | 115–107 | ✗ · ✗ | NY −5.6 · NY −4.5 | Market |
| · WSH at IND | 101–114 | ✓ · ✓ | IND −3.2 · IND −3.5 | Market |
| · OKC at POR | 103–123 | ✗ · ✗ | OKC −0.5 · OKC −1.5 | Sims |
| · ORL at SAC | 107–100 | ✓ · ✓ | ORL −3.3 · ORL −5.5 | Market |
| · MIA at UTAH | 115–109 | ✓ · ✓ | MIA −3.6 · MIA −9.5 | Sims |
| · LAC at PHX | 110–133 | ✓ · ✓ | PHX −1.3 · PHX −3.5 | Market |
| · BOS at PHI | 123–101 | ✓ · ✓ | BOS −0.4 · BOS −1.5 | Market |
| · MIL at NY | 85–117 | ✓ · ✓ | NY −14.1 · NY −16.5 | Market |
| · NO at GS | 87–138 | ✓ · ✓ | GS −16.0 · GS −11.5 | Sims |
| · SA at PHX | 122–96 | ✓ · ✓ | SA −7.6 · SA −8.5 | Market |
| · DEN at HOU | 100–110 | ✓ · ✓ | HOU −9.1 · HOU −4.5 | Sims |
| · IND at DAL | 122–125 | ✓ · ✓ | DAL −11.0 · DAL −4.5 | Market |
| · MEM at TOR | 118–102 | ✗ · ✓ | TOR −6.7 · MEM −1.5 | Market |
| · WSH at DET | 111–122 | ✓ · ✓ | DET −13.7 · DET −9.5 | Market |
| · CLE at CHA | 112–124 | ✗ · ✗ | CLE −20.1 · CLE −9.5 | Market |
| · LAL at ATL | 124–114 | ✗ · ✗ | ATL −1.4 · ATL −2.5 | Sims |
| · MIA at SAC | 114–108 | ✓ · ✓ | MIA −5.5 · MIA −11.5 | Sims |
| · NO at LAC | 123–139 | ✓ · ✗ | LAC −0.6 · NO −1.5 | Sims |
| · BOS at MIL | 117–97 | ✓ · ✓ | BOS −10.5 · BOS −13.5 | Market |
| · BKN at DAL | 93–130 | ✓ · ✓ | DAL −13.7 · DAL −7.5 | Sims |
| · UTAH at MIN | 100–115 | ✓ · ✓ | MIN −20.5 · MIN −12.5 | Market |
| · LAL at DET | 121–116 | ✗ · ✗ | DET −5.9 · DET −8.5 | Sims |
| · PHI at CHI | 127–121 | ✓ · ✓ | PHI −13.9 · PHI −9.5 | Market |
| · SA at POR | 125–103 | ✓ · ✓ | SA −2.2 · SA −5.5 | Market |
| · HOU at PHX | 99–102 | ✗ · ✗ | HOU −8.5 · HOU −6.5 | Market |
| · ORL at GS | 119–126 | ✓ · ✓ | GS −12.9 · GS −7.5 | Market |
| · WSH at OKC | 75–114 | ✓ · ✓ | OKC −13.9 · OKC −12.5 | Sims |
| · NY at CLE | 109–97 | ✗ · ✓ | CLE −3.1 · NY −4.5 | Market |
| · BKN at ATL | 121–124 | ✓ · ✓ | ATL −9.3 · ATL −6.5 | Market |
| · DEN at IND | 114–102 | ✓ · ✓ | DEN −7.1 · DEN −7.5 | Market |
| · SA at SAC | 124–109 | ✓ · ✓ | SA −16.7 · SA −17.5 | Sims |
| · POR at LAL | 118–124 | ✓ · ✓ | LAL −2.3 · LAL −3.5 | Market |
| · MIN at NO | 115–109 | ✓ · ✓ | MIN −9.5 · MIN −3.5 | Market |
| · TOR at MIL | 121–107 | ✓ · ✓ | TOR −5.6 · TOR −3.5 | Sims |
| · OKC at MEM | 128–97 | ✗ · ✓ | MEM −1.4 · OKC −4.5 | Market |
| · UTAH at DAL | 100–112 | ✓ · ✓ | DAL −11.8 · DAL −6.5 | Sims |
| · PHI at CLE | 95–119 | ✗ · – | PHI −1.2 · – | – |
| · BOS at CHA | 119–80 | ✓ · ✓ | BOS −13.8 · BOS −10.5 | Sims |
| · WSH at ATL | 132–139 | ✓ · ✓ | ATL −10.1 · ATL −8.5 | Market |
| · MIA at GS | 100–120 | ✓ · ✓ | GS −9.7 · GS −3.5 | Sims |
| · ORL at PHX | 104–117 | ✓ · ✓ | PHX −1.2 · PHX −1.5 | Market |
| · MIA at LAC | 117–116 | ✗ · ✓ | LAC −0.8 · MIA −5.5 | Sims |
| · LAL at SAC | 116–103 | ✓ · ✓ | LAL −12.5 · LAL −12.5 | Tie |
| · DAL at SA | 111–112 | ✓ · ✓ | SA −9.4 · SA −12.5 | Sims |
| · POR at PHX | 132–119 | ✓ · ✓ | POR −6.2 · POR −2.5 | Sims |
| · TOR at DEN | 109–128 | ✓ · ✓ | DEN −0.8 · DEN −4.5 | Market |
| · MIN at HOU | 117–107 | ✗ · ✗ | HOU −3.9 · HOU −7.5 | Sims |
| · CLE at OKC | 116–124 | ✗ · ✓ | CLE −1.6 · OKC −3.5 | Market |
| · UTAH at NO | 113–120 | ✓ · ✓ | NO −6.9 · NO −5.5 | Sims |
| · IND at MEM | 107–103 | ✗ · ✗ | MEM −15.4 · MEM −6.5 | Market |
| · CHI at NY | 105–135 | ✓ · ✓ | NY −15.0 · NY −11.5 | Sims |
| · CHA at BKN | 104–114 | ✗ · ✗ | CHA −2.3 · CHA −3.5 | Sims |
| · MIL at BOS | 102–109 | ✓ · ✓ | BOS −15.1 · BOS −12.5 | Market |
| · PHI at DET | 112–106 | ✗ · ✗ | DET −6.0 · DET −2.5 | Market |
| · ATL at WSH | 120–105 | ✗ · ✓ | WSH −1.4 · ATL −1.5 | Market |
| · MIA at LAL | 117–138 | ✓ · ✓ | LAL −4.3 · LAL −2.5 | Sims |
| · TOR at LAC | 125–118 | ✓ · ✓ | TOR −5.5 · TOR −4.5 | Sims |
| · PHX at GS | 113–116 | ✓ · ✓ | GS −10.5 · GS −2.5 | Market |
| · POR at DEN | 118–110 | ✗ · ✗ | DEN −2.4 · DEN −4.5 | Sims |
| · UTAH at SA | 97–119 | ✓ · ✓ | SA −19.2 · SA −16.5 | Sims |
| · BOS at HOU | 93–109 | ✓ · ✓ | HOU −5.7 · HOU −4.5 | Sims |
| · MIL at MIN | 100–112 | ✓ · ✓ | MIN −20.7 · MIN −10.5 | Market |
| · NO at MEM | 135–134 | ✗ · ✗ | MEM −10.5 · MEM −5.5 | Market |
| · SAC at DAL | 115–100 | ✗ · ✗ | DAL −17.5 · DAL −8.5 | Market |
| · CHI at PHI | 107–126 | ✓ · ✓ | PHI −16.4 · PHI −9.5 | Sims |
| · WSH at ORL | 103–94 | ✗ · ✗ | ORL −2.6 · ORL −2.5 | Market |
| · ATL at IND | 108–104 | ✓ · ✓ | ATL −7.6 · ATL −9.5 | Sims |
| · DET at CHA | 124–91 | ✓ · ✓ | DET −7.8 · DET −6.5 | Sims |
| · BKN at NY | 90–103 | ✓ · ✓ | NY −16.0 · NY −14.5 | Market |
| · OKC at CLE | 117–112 | ✗ · ✗ | CLE −9.3 · CLE −4.5 | Market |
| · TOR at LAL | 125–131 | ✓ · ✓ | LAL −0.8 · LAL −2.5 | Market |
| · LAC at GS | 112–124 | ✓ · ✓ | GS −5.6 · GS −1.5 | Sims |
| · BKN at IND | 98–90 | ✗ · ✗ | IND −5.7 · IND −3.5 | Market |
| · BOS at ORL | 108–97 | ✓ · ✓ | BOS −4.5 · BOS −6.5 | Market |
| · OKC at HOU | 98–119 | ✓ · ✓ | HOU −4.5 · HOU −2.5 | Sims |
| · MIN at SA | 111–121 | ✓ · ✓ | SA −4.4 · SA −12.5 | Market |
| · CLE at MIL | 136–111 | ✓ · ✓ | CLE −8.8 · CLE −9.5 | Market |
| · SAC at MEM | 105–136 | ✓ · ✓ | MEM −15.6 · MEM −8.5 | Sims |
| · ATL at NO | 99–121 | ✗ · ✗ | ATL −6.0 · ATL −4.5 | Market |
| · PHI at CHA | 109–104 | ✓ · ✓ | PHI −2.9 · PHI −2.5 | Sims |
| · POR at UTAH | 112–90 | ✓ · ✓ | POR −2.8 · POR −8.5 | Market |
| · DEN at PHX | 127–120 | ✗ · ✓ | Pick · DEN −3.5 | Market |
| · LAL at GS | 95–112 | ✗ · ✗ | LAL −4.3 · LAL −3.5 | Market |
| · LAC at MIN | 101–127 | ✓ · ✓ | MIN −16.4 · MIN −6.5 | Sims |
| · HOU at DAL | 111–116 | ✗ · ✗ | HOU −2.1 · HOU −6.5 | Sims |
| · IND at MIA | 125–145 | ✓ · ✓ | MIA −6.6 · MIA −8.5 | Market |
| · ORL at TOR | 121–114 | ✗ · ✗ | TOR −9.5 · TOR −5.5 | Market |
| · NY at PHI | 93–98 | ✗ · ✗ | NY −4.2 · NY −3.5 | Market |