Lightning win 5,841 of 10,000 sims. Market: 66%. Overtime or a shootout in 18%.
TBL −1.5
39%
DET +1.5
61%
Total
6.6mkt 6.5
Over 6.5
50%
Expected shots
26–28
Prices
Price to buy, cents
Sims price, sportsbook and Kalshi for each team to win
Contract
Sims
Book
Kalshi
Red Wings win
42¢
34¢
33¢
Lightning win
58¢
66¢
68¢
How the 10,000 games ended
Median score 3–3
← DET wins by moreTBL wins by more →
Goalies
Red Wings: projected
J. Gibsonexpected save rate 88.2%
Lightning: projected
A. Vasilevskiyexpected save rate 88.6%
Each team's shots come from its offense against the other team's defense, then finishing and the opposing goalie turn shots into goals; 10,000 games are played out with late empty-net goals, overtime and shootouts. The starting goalie is the biggest single input: projected from who has been starting (the backup on the second night of a back-to-back) until the league confirms it at warmups.
