Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
ATL covers BAL coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium
BAL at ATL
BAL Ravens4-5Tyler Huntley
ATL Falcons3-6Michael Penix Jr.
- Line, published
- ATL −5.0mkt −3.5
- Total
- 41.0mkt 43.5
- ATL covers
- 54%
- Over 43.5
- 44%
- Median score
- 18–23
ATL's listed starter Michael Penix Jr. didn't start last week (M.Penix did). Check QB status before kickoff.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BAL's biggest win to ATL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ATL wins. Filled dots are sims where ATL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BAL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BAL's biggest win to ATL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ATL wins. Filled dots are sims where ATL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BAL covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
ATL covers −3.5 in 54%
Players
BAL RavensFantasy points, PPR
- Derrick Henry RB82 rush yds · 17 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.6 TD15.39–20
- Mark Andrews TE58 rec yds · 5.5 catches · 0.3 TD13.18–17
- Tyler Huntley QB220 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 14 rush yds12.98–17
- Zay Flowers WRQuestionable41 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims9.53–14
- Rashod Bateman WR36 rec yds · 3.4 catches · 0.2 TD8.14–11
- Tyler Loop KField goals and extra points6.94–10
Ravens D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.72–8- Justice Hill RB13 rush yds · 15 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.2 TD5.12–7
- Chris Moore WR13 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.00–4
- Devontez Walker WR13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD2.90–4
- Matthew Hibner TE13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD2.90–4
- LaJohntay Wester WR9 rec yds · 0.8 catches1.90–3
ATL FalconsFantasy points, PPR
- Bijan Robinson RB86 rush yds · 38 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.9 TD21.215–27
- Drake London WR59 rec yds · 5.4 catches · 0.4 TD13.88–18
- Michael Penix Jr. QB214 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 14 rush yds13.69–18
- Nick Folk KField goals and extra points8.15–11
Falcons D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.14–11- Brian Robinson RB45 rush yds · 7 rec yds · 0.6 catches · 0.4 TD8.14–11
- Jahan Dotson WR30 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.2 TD6.83–10
- Kyle Pitts TE21 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.1 TD4.92–7
- Austin Hooper TE17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD3.71–5
- Olamide Zaccheaus WR16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.61–5
- Zachariah Branch WR15 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.30–5
- Chris Blair WR6 rec yds · 0.6 catches1.50–2
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | BAL | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.039 | −0.022 |
| Rush offense | +0.002 | +0.024 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.001 | −0.014 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.007 | −0.016 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.058 | −0.015 |