Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
LA covers BUF coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· SoFi Stadium
BUF at LA
BUF Bills7-1Josh Allen
LA Rams5-4Matthew Stafford
- Line, published
- LA −3.0mkt −3.5
- Total
- 50.0mkt 54.5
- LA covers
- 49%
- Over 54.5
- 38%
- Median score
- 24–27
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BUF's biggest win to LA's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LA wins. Filled dots are sims where LA covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BUF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from BUF's biggest win to LA's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LA wins. Filled dots are sims where LA covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where BUF covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
LA covers −3.5 in 49%
Players
BUF BillsFantasy points, PPR
- Josh Allen QB257 pass yds · 1.7 pass TD · 38 rush yds21.115–26
- James Cook RB78 rush yds · 25 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.8 TD17.211–22
- Khalil Shakir WR60 rec yds · 5.3 catches · 0.4 TD13.88–18
- Dalton Kincaid TE47 rec yds · 4.2 catches · 0.3 TD10.76–15
- Keon Coleman WR44 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.3 TD10.05–14
- DJ Moore WRQuestionable39 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims9.23–14
- Tyler Bass KField goals and extra points7.44–10
- Ty Johnson RB17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD4.21–6
Bills D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.11–7- Dawson Knox TE16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.81–5
LA RamsFantasy points, PPR
- Kyren Williams RB71 rush yds · 48 rec yds · 4.2 catches · 1.0 TD21.815–28
- Matthew Stafford QB265 pass yds · 1.9 pass TD · 16 rush yds18.914–23
- Davante Adams WR70 rec yds · 6.1 catches · 0.5 TD16.110–21
- Blake Corum RB41 rush yds · 13 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.4 TD9.25–13
- Puka Nacua WR39 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.3 TD9.14–13
- Tyler Higbee TE36 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.3 TD8.34–12
- Harrison Mevis KField goals and extra points8.25–11
- Konata Mumpfield WR26 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.2 TD6.12–9
Rams D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.52–8- Davis Allen TE13 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD3.00–4
- Colby Parkinson TE8 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.1 TD1.90–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | BUF | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.093 | +0.048 |
| Rush offense | +0.030 | +0.008 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.024 | −0.034 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.020 | 0.000 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.108 | +0.059 |