Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
GB covers CHI coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Lambeau Field
CHI at GB
CHI Bears7-2Tyson Bagent
GB Packers6-3Jordan Love
- Line, published
- GB −3.0mkt +1.5
- Total
- 47.0mkt 47.5
- GB covers
- 61%
- Over 47.5
- 46%
- Median score
- 22–24
The sims give GB 59% to win; the betting market gives 47%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from CHI's biggest win to GB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger GB wins. Filled dots are sims where GB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where CHI covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from CHI's biggest win to GB's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger GB wins. Filled dots are sims where GB covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where CHI covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
GB covers +1.5 in 61%
Players
CHI BearsFantasy points, PPR
- D'Andre Swift RB90 rush yds · 23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.8 TD18.112–23
- Tyson Bagent QB240 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 15 rush yds15.211–20
- Luther Burden III WR60 rec yds · 5.5 catches · 0.4 TD14.39–19
- Kalif Raymond WR45 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.26–14
- Rome Odunze WR42 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.3 TD9.55–13
- Colston Loveland TE39 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.2 TD9.05–12
- Cairo Santos KField goals and extra points7.44–10
Bears D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.22–8- Cole Kmet TE14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.20–4
- Sam Roush TE11 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.40–3
- Roschon Johnson RB6 rush yds1.40–2
- Caleb Williams QBQuestionable · plays in 80% of sims0.70–1
GB PackersFantasy points, PPR
- Jordan Love QB255 pass yds · 1.7 pass TD · 22 rush yds18.113–22
- Matthew Golden WR68 rec yds · 6.0 catches · 0.5 TD15.810–21
- MarShawn Lloyd RB56 rush yds · 22 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.6 TD13.38–18
- Christian Watson WR57 rec yds · 5.0 catches · 0.4 TD13.08–18
- Tucker Kraft TE45 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.3 TD10.76–15
- Trey Smack KField goals and extra points8.15–11
- Kaleb Johnson RB42 rush yds · 0.3 TD7.43–10
Packers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.43–9- Skyy Moore WR25 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.2 TD5.72–8
- Jonnu Smith TE13 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.90–4
- J. Michael Sturdivant WR8 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.1 TD1.80–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | CHI | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.030 | +0.062 |
| Rush offense | +0.009 | −0.026 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.021 | +0.039 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.020 | +0.008 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.056 | +0.074 |