Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
MIA covers CIN coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Hard Rock Stadium
CIN at MIA
CIN Bengals6-2Joe Burrow
MIA Dolphins1-7Malik Willis
- Line, published
- MIA +3.0mkt +7.0
- Total
- 45.0mkt 44.5
- MIA covers
- 62%
- Over 44.5
- 52%
- Median score
- 24–21
The sims give CIN 60% to win; the betting market gives 74%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from CIN's biggest win to MIA's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger MIA wins. Filled dots are sims where MIA covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where CIN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from CIN's biggest win to MIA's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger MIA wins. Filled dots are sims where MIA covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where CIN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
MIA covers +7.0 in 62%
Players
CIN BengalsFantasy points, PPR
- Chase Brown RB76 rush yds · 48 rec yds · 4.2 catches · 0.9 TD22.015–28
- Joe Burrow QB259 pass yds · 1.7 pass TD · 21 rush yds18.113–23
- Tee Higgins WRQuestionable57 rec yds · 5.0 catches · 0.4 TD · plays in 80% of sims13.05–19
- Ja'Marr Chase WRQuestionable40 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims9.22–14
- Evan McPherson KField goals and extra points8.15–11
- Dohnte Meyers WR34 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD7.94–11
Bengals D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.73–10- Mike Gesicki TE28 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.2 TD6.53–9
- Samaje Perine RB17 rush yds · 15 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.2 TD5.92–8
- Mitchell Tinsley WR16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.60–5
MIA DolphinsFantasy points, PPR
- Malik Washington WR12 rush yds · 77 rec yds · 7.1 catches · 0.5 TD19.313–25
- Malik Willis QB227 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 28 rush yds16.011–20
- Ollie Gordon II RB71 rush yds · 16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.6 TD13.68–18
- Chris Bell WR37 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.2 TD8.54–12
- Greg Dulcich TE33 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD7.54–11
- Riley Patterson KField goals and extra points7.34–10
- Kevin Coleman Jr. WR30 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.2 TD6.83–10
Dolphins D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.42–8- Ryan Miller WR12 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
- Will Kacmarek TE11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
- Jaylen Wright RBQuestionable15 rush yds · 0.1 TD · plays in 80% of sims2.10–3
- DJ Herman RB8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.80–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.032 | −0.038 |
| Rush offense | +0.007 | −0.005 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.002 | +0.028 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.001 | −0.003 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.036 | −0.042 |