Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
NYJ covers CLE coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· MetLife Stadium
CLE at NYJ
CLE Browns5-4Deshaun Watson
NYJ Jets2-7Geno Smith
- Line, published
- NYJ −1.0mkt −2.5
- Total
- 41.0mkt 38.5
- NYJ covers
- 47%
- Over 38.5
- 59%
- Median score
- 20–20
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from CLE's biggest win to NYJ's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NYJ wins. Filled dots are sims where NYJ covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where CLE covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from CLE's biggest win to NYJ's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NYJ wins. Filled dots are sims where NYJ covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where CLE covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
NYJ covers −2.5 in 47%
Players
CLE BrownsFantasy points, PPR
- Quinshon Judkins RB68 rush yds · 33 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.7 TD17.211–22
- Deshaun Watson QB235 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 29 rush yds16.211–21
- KC Concepcion WR57 rec yds · 5.3 catches · 0.4 TD13.68–18
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE47 rec yds · 4.4 catches · 0.3 TD10.76–14
- Denzel Boston WR45 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.26–14
- Andre Szmyt KField goals and extra points7.54–10
Browns D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.13–10- Raheim Sanders RB7 rush yds · 22 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.2 TD6.03–8
- Jerry Jeudy WR16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.1 TD3.51–5
NYJ JetsFantasy points, PPR
- Garrett Wilson WR86 rec yds · 8.0 catches · 0.5 TD19.613–25
- Braelon Allen RB98 rush yds · 20 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.8 TD18.512–24
- Geno Smith QB226 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 20 rush yds14.410–18
- Kenyon Sadiq TE51 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.3 TD12.07–16
- Isaiah Williams WR33 rec yds · 3.1 catches · 0.2 TD7.94–11
- Jason Sanders KField goals and extra points7.74–11
Jets D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.23–10- Jeremy Ruckert TE22 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.1 TD5.02–7
- Mason Taylor TE7 rec yds · 0.6 catches1.60–2
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | CLE | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.020 | −0.042 |
| Rush offense | −0.025 | −0.022 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.012 | +0.005 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.004 | 0.000 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.031 | −0.050 |