Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
LAC covers DEN coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· SoFi Stadium
DEN at LAC
DEN Broncos7-2Bo Nix
LAC Chargers0-8Justin Herbert
- Line, published
- LAC +2.0mkt +3.5
- Total
- 41.0mkt 42.5
- LAC covers
- 57%
- Over 42.5
- 47%
- Median score
- 21–20
The sims give DEN 53% to win; the betting market gives 63%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DEN's biggest win to LAC's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LAC wins. Filled dots are sims where LAC covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DEN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DEN's biggest win to LAC's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger LAC wins. Filled dots are sims where LAC covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DEN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
LAC covers +3.5 in 57%
Players
DEN BroncosFantasy points, PPR
- Bo Nix QB231 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 25 rush yds15.611–20
- RJ Harvey RB18 rush yds · 47 rec yds · 4.3 catches · 0.4 TD13.28–17
- Jaylen Waddle WR55 rec yds · 5.1 catches · 0.3 TD12.78–17
- J.K. Dobbins RB66 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.5 TD11.57–15
- Courtland Sutton WR47 rec yds · 4.3 catches · 0.3 TD10.66–14
- Wil Lutz KField goals and extra points7.74–11
Broncos D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.54–11- Evan Engram TE27 rec yds · 2.5 catches · 0.2 TD6.23–9
- Tyler Badie RB6 rush yds · 13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD3.81–5
- Nate Adkins TE10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–4
- Troy Franklin WR8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.80–3
- Adam Trautman TE8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.70–2
- Marvin Mims Jr. WR7 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.70–2
LAC ChargersFantasy points, PPR
- Justin Herbert QB217 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 20 rush yds13.69–18
- Tre Harris WR55 rec yds · 5.1 catches · 0.3 TD12.57–16
- Omarion Hampton RB65 rush yds · 13 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.5 TD12.47–16
- Keaton Mitchell RB32 rush yds · 29 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.4 TD11.16–15
- Oronde Gadsden II TE41 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.2 TD9.65–13
- Cameron Dicker KField goals and extra points7.44–10
- Ladd McConkey WRQuestionable32 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims7.32–11
Chargers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.93–10- Kimani Vidal RB8 rush yds · 17 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.1 TD5.02–7
- Alec Ingold FB11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–4
- Derius Davis WR8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.70–3
- Charlie Kolar TEQuestionable6 rec yds · 0.6 catches · plays in 80% of sims1.30–2
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | DEN | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.005 | −0.039 |
| Rush offense | +0.004 | −0.007 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.044 | −0.020 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.008 | −0.007 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.008 | −0.036 |