Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
ARI covers DET coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· State Farm Stadium
DET at ARI
DET Lions6-2Jared Goff
ARI Cardinals3-6Jacoby Brissett
- Line, published
- ARI +3.0mkt +5.5
- Total
- 49.0mkt 55.5
- ARI covers
- 60%
- Over 55.5
- 31%
- Median score
- 26–23
The sims give DET 58% to win; the betting market gives 70%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DET's biggest win to ARI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ARI wins. Filled dots are sims where ARI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DET covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from DET's biggest win to ARI's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger ARI wins. Filled dots are sims where ARI covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where DET covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
ARI covers +5.5 in 60%
Players
DET LionsFantasy points, PPR
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB86 rush yds · 48 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 1.0 TD23.817–30
- Jared Goff QB272 pass yds · 1.9 pass TD · 16 rush yds19.415–24
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR77 rec yds · 6.5 catches · 0.5 TD17.511–23
- Sam LaPorta TE55 rec yds · 4.7 catches · 0.4 TD12.67–17
- Jameson Williams WR42 rec yds · 3.6 catches · 0.3 TD9.65–13
- Jake Bates KField goals and extra points8.15–11
- Isaac TeSlaa WR30 rec yds · 2.6 catches · 0.2 TD6.93–10
Lions D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.92–9- Sione Vaki RB10 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.1 TD3.51–5
- Brock Wright TE9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD2.00–3
ARI CardinalsFantasy points, PPR
- Trey McBride TE79 rec yds · 7.1 catches · 0.5 TD17.912–23
- Michael Wilson WR78 rec yds · 7.0 catches · 0.5 TD17.912–23
- Jacoby Brissett QB251 pass yds · 1.6 pass TD · 25 rush yds17.713–22
- Jeremiyah Love RB63 rush yds · 21 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.6 TD14.29–19
- Tyler Allgeier RB34 rush yds · 17 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.4 TD9.05–12
- Chad Ryland KField goals and extra points7.54–10
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.1 TD5.32–7
- Kendrick Bourne WR21 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.1 TD4.92–7
Cardinals D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.52–7- Elijah Higgins TE10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.20–3
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | DET | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | +0.077 | −0.034 |
| Rush offense | −0.009 | +0.005 |
| Pass defense, allowed | +0.038 | +0.044 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.015 | −0.015 |
| QB, per dropback | +0.091 | −0.041 |