Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
TEN covers HOU coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Nissan Stadium
HOU at TEN
HOU Texans3-5C.J. Stroud
TEN Titans1-7Cam Ward
- Line, published
- TEN +3.0mkt +6.5
- Total
- 41.0mkt 37.5
- TEN covers
- 61%
- Over 37.5
- 60%
- Median score
- 22–19
The sims give HOU 60% to win; the betting market gives 74%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from HOU's biggest win to TEN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger TEN wins. Filled dots are sims where TEN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where HOU covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from HOU's biggest win to TEN's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger TEN wins. Filled dots are sims where TEN covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where HOU covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
TEN covers +6.5 in 61%
Players
HOU TexansFantasy points, PPR
- C.J. Stroud QB241 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 15 rush yds15.511–20
- Xavier Hutchinson WR47 rec yds · 4.2 catches · 0.3 TD11.06–15
- David Montgomery RB56 rush yds · 12 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.5 TD10.76–14
- Dalton Schultz TE46 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.36–14
- Woody Marks RB33 rush yds · 16 rec yds · 1.4 catches · 0.3 TD8.44–12
Texans D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.94–11- Ka'imi Fairbairn KField goals and extra points7.85–11
- Nico Collins WR33 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.64–11
- Jaylin Noel WR22 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.1 TD5.62–8
- Kayshon Boutte WR24 rec yds · 2.2 catches · 0.1 TD5.52–8
- Jared Wayne WR22 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.1 TD4.92–7
- Foster Moreau TE16 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD3.71–5
TEN TitansFantasy points, PPR
- Tony Pollard RB71 rush yds · 25 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.6 TD15.510–20
- Cam Ward QB219 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 15 rush yds13.29–17
- Carnell Tate WRQuestionable54 rec yds · 5.1 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims12.25–18
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR51 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.3 TD11.97–16
- Joey Slye KField goals and extra points7.24–10
Titans D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.43–9- Tyjae Spears RB19 rush yds · 14 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.2 TD5.82–8
- Gunnar Helm TE25 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.1 TD5.52–8
- Elic Ayomanor WR21 rec yds · 2.0 catches · 0.1 TD4.82–7
- Calvin Ridley WR12 rec yds · 1.1 catches · 0.1 TD2.60–4
- Daniel Bellinger TE11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.40–4
- Nicholas Singleton RB9 rush yds · 0.1 TD1.30–2
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | HOU | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.015 | −0.084 |
| Rush offense | −0.026 | 0.000 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.002 | +0.031 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.028 | +0.007 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.012 | −0.100 |