Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
PIT covers IND coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Acrisure Stadium
IND at PIT
IND Colts2-7Daniel Jones
PIT Steelers6-2Aaron Rodgers
- Line, published
- PIT −3.0mkt −3.0
- Total
- 43.0mkt 41.5
- PIT covers
- 48%
- Over 41.5
- 54%
- Median score
- 20–23
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from IND's biggest win to PIT's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger PIT wins. Filled dots are sims where PIT covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where IND covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from IND's biggest win to PIT's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger PIT wins. Filled dots are sims where PIT covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where IND covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
PIT covers −3.0 in 48%
Players
IND ColtsFantasy points, PPR
- Jonathan Taylor RB92 rush yds · 31 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.8 TD20.213–26
- Daniel Jones QB219 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 20 rush yds13.79–18
- Josh Downs WR58 rec yds · 5.5 catches · 0.3 TD13.48–18
- Tyler Warren TE57 rec yds · 5.4 catches · 0.3 TD13.38–18
- Spencer Shrader KField goals and extra points7.44–10
- Keenan Allen WRQuestionable31 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims7.02–11
Colts D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.73–10- Laquon Treadwell WR24 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.1 TD5.62–8
- Seth McGowan RB14 rush yds · 0.1 TD3.61–5
PIT SteelersFantasy points, PPR
- Jaylen Warren RB82 rush yds · 36 rec yds · 3.4 catches · 0.8 TD20.314–26
- Aaron Rodgers QB236 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 15 rush yds14.810–19
- DK Metcalf WR59 rec yds · 5.5 catches · 0.4 TD13.58–18
- Roman Wilson WR43 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.3 TD10.05–13
- Pat Freiermuth TE34 rec yds · 3.2 catches · 0.2 TD8.34–11
- Chris Boswell KField goals and extra points7.95–11
Steelers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.54–11- Darnell Washington TE25 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.2 TD5.72–8
- Germie Bernard WR20 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.62–6
- Rico Dowdle RBQuestionable14 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims4.11–6
- Ben Skowronek WR8 rec yds · 0.7 catches1.80–3
- Travis Homer RB8 rush yds · 0.1 TD1.10–1
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | IND | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.056 | −0.041 |
| Rush offense | +0.046 | +0.009 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.001 | −0.003 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.005 | +0.005 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.059 | −0.047 |