Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
NE covers LV coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Gillette Stadium
LV at NE
LV Raiders4-5Kirk Cousins
NE Patriots5-4Drake Maye
- Line, published
- NE −5.0mkt −3.5
- Total
- 43.0mkt 45.5
- NE covers
- 54%
- Over 45.5
- 40%
- Median score
- 19–23
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LV's biggest win to NE's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NE wins. Filled dots are sims where NE covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LV covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from LV's biggest win to NE's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NE wins. Filled dots are sims where NE covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where LV covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
NE covers −3.5 in 54%
Players
LV RaidersFantasy points, PPR
- Ashton Jeanty RBQuestionable53 rush yds · 36 rec yds · 3.3 catches · 0.6 TD · plays in 80% of sims15.68–22
- Kirk Cousins QB229 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 15 rush yds13.59–18
- Brock Bowers TE51 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.3 TD11.67–16
- Michael Mayer TE47 rec yds · 4.4 catches · 0.3 TD10.86–15
- Tre Tucker WR46 rec yds · 4.2 catches · 0.2 TD10.36–14
- Matt Gay KField goals and extra points7.04–10
- Mike Washington Jr. RB33 rush yds · 0.2 TD6.02–8
Raiders D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed5.62–8- Cody White WR21 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.1 TD4.62–7
NE PatriotsFantasy points, PPR
- Drake Maye QB241 pass yds · 1.5 pass TD · 22 rush yds16.712–21
- Romeo Doubs WR57 rec yds · 5.1 catches · 0.4 TD13.08–17
- Rhamondre Stevenson RBQuestionable37 rush yds · 33 rec yds · 3.0 catches · 0.5 TD · plays in 80% of sims12.87–18
- DeMario Douglas WR45 rec yds · 4.0 catches · 0.3 TD10.35–14
- Hunter Henry TE42 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.3 TD9.55–13
- TreVeyon Henderson RB49 rush yds · 9 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.4 TD9.35–13
- Andy Borregales KField goals and extra points8.25–11
Patriots D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.14–11- Efton Chism III WR21 rec yds · 1.9 catches · 0.1 TD4.82–7
- Kyle Williams WR20 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.52–6
- Corey Kiner RB16 rush yds · 0.1 TD3.01–4
- Eli Raridon TE11 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.50–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | LV | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.006 | +0.027 |
| Rush offense | −0.025 | −0.011 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.015 | −0.040 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.014 | +0.005 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.012 | +0.036 |