Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
NO covers MIN coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Caesars Superdome
MIN at NO
MIN Vikings6-2Kyler Murray
NO Saints3-5Tyler Shough
- Line, published
- NO +3.0mkt +1.5
- Total
- 41.0mkt 41.5
- NO covers
- 47%
- Over 41.5
- 48%
- Median score
- 21–20
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from MIN's biggest win to NO's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NO wins. Filled dots are sims where NO covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where MIN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from MIN's biggest win to NO's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger NO wins. Filled dots are sims where NO covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where MIN covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
NO covers +1.5 in 47%
Players
MIN VikingsFantasy points, PPR
- Aaron Jones RB92 rush yds · 42 rec yds · 3.9 catches · 0.9 TD22.816–29
- T.J. Hockenson TE70 rec yds · 6.5 catches · 0.4 TD15.910–21
- Kyler Murray QB226 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 15 rush yds14.010–18
- Jordan Addison WRQuestionable44 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims10.24–15
Vikings D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.04–11- Will Reichard KField goals and extra points7.85–11
- Justin Jefferson WRQuestionable30 rec yds · 2.8 catches · 0.2 TD · plays in 80% of sims6.82–10
- Jauan Jennings WR10 rec yds · 1.0 catches · 0.1 TD2.40–3
- DeeJay Dallas RB7 rec yds · 0.7 catches2.20–3
- Tai Felton WR9 rec yds · 0.8 catches2.00–3
- Myles Price WR8 rec yds · 0.8 catches · 0.1 TD1.90–3
- Demond Claiborne RB8 rush yds · 0.1 TD1.80–2
NO SaintsFantasy points, PPR
- Chris Olave WR70 rec yds · 6.6 catches · 0.4 TD15.910–21
- Tyler Shough QB225 pass yds · 1.2 pass TD · 31 rush yds15.210–20
- Devaughn Vele WR45 rec yds · 4.3 catches · 0.2 TD10.26–14
- Juwan Johnson TE40 rec yds · 3.8 catches · 0.2 TD9.05–12
- Alvin Kamara RBQuestionable34 rush yds · 17 rec yds · 1.6 catches · 0.3 TD · plays in 80% of sims8.64–12
- Daniel Carlson KField goals and extra points7.34–10
- Kendre Miller RB35 rush yds · 10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.3 TD7.23–10
Saints D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed6.93–10- Bryce Lance WR19 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.32–6
- Noah Fant TE15 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.1 TD3.61–5
- CJ Donaldson RB13 rush yds · 0.1 TD3.21–4
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | MIN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.041 | −0.030 |
| Rush offense | −0.010 | +0.003 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.056 | +0.017 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.015 | +0.025 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.041 | −0.036 |