Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
JAX covers PHI coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
PHI at JAX
PHI Eagles2-7Jalen Hurts
JAX Jaguars6-2Trevor Lawrence
- Line, published
- JAX −7.0mkt −7.5
- Total
- 44.0mkt 41.5
- JAX covers
- 46%
- Over 41.5
- 59%
- Median score
- 19–26
Typical NFL range: the middle two-thirds of sims land within about 13 points of the median.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from PHI's biggest win to JAX's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger JAX wins. Filled dots are sims where JAX covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where PHI covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from PHI's biggest win to JAX's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger JAX wins. Filled dots are sims where JAX covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where PHI covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
JAX covers −7.5 in 46%
Players
PHI EaglesFantasy points, PPR
- Jalen Hurts QB228 pass yds · 1.3 pass TD · 48 rush yds18.113–23
- Dontayvion Wicks WR66 rec yds · 6.2 catches · 0.4 TD14.99–19
- Will Shipley RB59 rush yds · 19 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.5 TD12.77–17
- Makai Lemon WR51 rec yds · 4.8 catches · 0.3 TD12.27–16
- Darius Cooper WR36 rec yds · 3.4 catches · 0.2 TD8.34–11
- Jake Elliott KField goals and extra points6.84–10
- Zach Ertz TE23 rec yds · 2.1 catches · 0.1 TD5.22–7
Eagles D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.82–7- Dallas Goedert TE19 rec yds · 1.8 catches · 0.1 TD4.42–6
- Johnny Mundt TE13 rec yds · 1.2 catches · 0.1 TD2.90–4
JAX JaguarsFantasy points, PPR
- Trevor Lawrence QB240 pass yds · 1.6 pass TD · 22 rush yds17.212–22
- Bhayshul Tuten RB73 rush yds · 17 rec yds · 1.5 catches · 0.7 TD14.99–20
- Parker Washington WR61 rec yds · 5.4 catches · 0.4 TD14.29–19
- Brenton Strange TE46 rec yds · 4.1 catches · 0.3 TD10.66–14
- Jakobi Meyers WR38 rec yds · 3.4 catches · 0.3 TD8.94–12
- Cam Little KField goals and extra points8.55–11
Jaguars D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed8.04–11- Brian Thomas Jr. WR33 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.53–10
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB32 rush yds · 0.3 TD4.82–7
- Josh Cameron WR15 rec yds · 1.3 catches · 0.1 TD3.50–5
- Ameer Abdullah RB11 rush yds · 0.1 TD3.31–4
- Nate Boerkircher TE10 rec yds · 0.9 catches · 0.1 TD2.40–3
- LeQuint Allen Jr. RB8 rec yds · 0.7 catches · 0.1 TD1.70–2
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | PHI | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.010 | +0.037 |
| Rush offense | −0.008 | +0.015 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.005 | −0.031 |
| Rush defense, allowed | +0.012 | −0.002 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.004 | +0.037 |