Week 5 games
How the 10,000 sims landed
DAL covers TB coversEach dot is 100 of the 10,000 sims.
· AT&T Stadium
TB at DAL
TB Buccaneers3-6Jalon Daniels
DAL Cowboys4-5Dak Prescott
- Line, published
- DAL −5.0mkt −9.5
- Total
- 47.0mkt 48.5
- DAL covers
- 36%
- Over 48.5
- 44%
- Median score
- 21–26
The sims give DAL 66% to win; the betting market gives 80%. Over 1,219 graded games the market has been the better guide, so treat the gap as a question, not an answer.
How the 10,000 sims landedHow to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from TB's biggest win to DAL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DAL wins. Filled dots are sims where DAL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where TB covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
How to read this chart
The game is played 10,000 times. Line up every final margin from TB's biggest win to DAL's biggest win, then show them as 100 dots: each dot stands for 100 sims.
Dots further right are bigger DAL wins. Filled dots are sims where DAL covers the market line (the dashed mark); hollow ones are where TB covers.
Count the filled dots and you have the cover chance. A wide spread means the result is hard to call.
DAL covers −9.5 in 36%
Players
TB BuccaneersFantasy points, PPR
- Bucky Irving RB72 rush yds · 28 rec yds · 2.6 catches · 0.7 TD16.711–21
- Jalon Daniels QB241 pass yds · 1.4 pass TD · 15 rush yds15.411–20
- Emeka Egbuka WR48 rec yds · 4.4 catches · 0.3 TD11.06–15
- Cade Otton TE47 rec yds · 4.3 catches · 0.3 TD10.76–14
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR37 rec yds · 3.5 catches · 0.2 TD8.85–12
- Kenny Gainwell RB16 rush yds · 25 rec yds · 2.3 catches · 0.3 TD7.94–11
- Ted Hurst III WR31 rec yds · 2.9 catches · 0.2 TD7.13–10
- Chase McLaughlin KField goals and extra points7.14–10
Buccaneers D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed4.61–7- Tez Johnson WR18 rec yds · 1.7 catches · 0.1 TD4.52–6
- Sean Tucker RB0.70–1
DAL CowboysFantasy points, PPR
- CeeDee Lamb WR88 rec yds · 7.6 catches · 0.6 TD20.414–26
- Javonte Williams RB84 rush yds · 31 rec yds · 2.7 catches · 0.9 TD19.713–25
- Dak Prescott QB262 pass yds · 1.8 pass TD · 16 rush yds18.013–22
- George Pickens WR50 rec yds · 4.3 catches · 0.4 TD11.46–16
- Ryan Flournoy WR42 rec yds · 3.7 catches · 0.3 TD9.65–13
- Brandon Aubrey KField goals and extra points8.45–11
Cowboys D/ST DSTSacks, takeaways, points allowed7.03–10- Jake Ferguson TE28 rec yds · 2.4 catches · 0.2 TD6.33–9
- Tyler Goodson RB13 rush yds · 0.1 TD2.91–4
- Emari Demercado RB6 rush yds0.90–1
Team ratingsOpponent-adjusted, as of kickoff
| EPA per play | TB | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Pass offense | −0.083 | +0.063 |
| Rush offense | +0.005 | +0.015 |
| Pass defense, allowed | −0.004 | +0.074 |
| Rush defense, allowed | −0.010 | +0.013 |
| QB, per dropback | −0.093 | +0.067 |